The life expectancy of the Brazilian reached the highest average in history. Projection released this Wednesday (25/7) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) shows that the longevity has reached 76 years. A jump of 22 years compared to the registered in the 1960s, for example, when the average reached 54. Brazil reached the mark of 208.4 million inhabitants in 2018, according to IBGE estimate released on Wednesday ( 24/7).
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One of the trends that most attracted IBGE’s attention is the slowing of population growth. In 2018, the country arrived. 208.4 million people. Increase of 0.38% – 800 thousand people – in relation to the contingent of 2017, when it was 207.6 million. From 2016 to 2017, growth had been 1.6 million people, double that from the passage from 2017 to 2018.
IBGE estimates that the Brazilian population will grow for the next 29 years, until 2047, when it is expected to reach 233.2 million. In the following years, the population will fall to 228.3 million in 2060. Reduced fertility, late pregnancy and a decline in the ratio of the elderly to the young are among the reasons.
By 2060, the population over 60 years old will more than double in size and reach 32.1% of the total population. Currently, it represents 13.44%. By 2060, a quarter (25%) of the population will be over 65 – the expectation of cida will be 81 years. The opposite occurs in the population of children up to 14 years of age, which currently represents 21.3% of the total and in 2060 will represent 14.7%.
What will be the life expectancy of the Brazilians in 2040?
How old is an average person? This response varies drastically according to where she lives. While the population of Japan, the world’s longest living place, reaches 83, the inhabitants of the Central African Republic do not survive for more than five decades.
“Considering that life expectancy is a sensitive indicator of health conditions, we face brutal differences according to each region,” says Dr. Rafael Lozano of the University of Washington in the United States.
The researcher is one of the authors of the work that evaluated parameters and statistics country by country and presented how the life expectancy should evolve until 2040. The tendency is that the Spaniards, currently the rooms placed, surpass the Japanese in the lead of the ranking in the near future .
“From the data, it is possible that politicians and public agents devise strategies to establish improvements that directly benefit the people,” Lozano believes.
While the first positions are occupied by Europeans and Asians, the last places are with Africa. The difference in life expectancy across continents is over 30 years.
Brazil life expectancy: in the middle of the table
In 81st place Brazil are behind El Salvador and Venezuela and ahead of Lithuania and Romania. The life expectancy here should increase three years and three months until 2040.
The study calculated the best and worst case scenarios for each country. If it works out and Brazil evolves a lot, we can reach 82.6 years in 2040 – an incredible leap of more than seven years. Now, in case everything goes wrong, the tendency is to retraction to 74.9 years, three months less than we enjoy today.
Searching for the best scenario for life expectancy
There is no other way: for people to celebrate more and more birthdays, it is necessary to invest heavily in education and health (eating healthy brazilian recipes should help too). “It is also necessary to have organized and effective responses to some events of great impact, such as demographic shocks, epidemics or hunger,” exemplifies Lozano.
Authorities still need to keep an eye on chronic diseases that are booming, such as hypertension and diabetes. “They will represent the main risks in some cases,” says the expert.
The 10 biggest causes of death in Brazil in 2016
- Infarction
- Stroke (stroke)
- Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias
- Pneumonia
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- Violence
- Diabetes
- Traffic-accidents
- Chronic Kidney Disease
- Lung and tracheal cancer
What will be the biggest causes of death in Brazil in 2040
- Infarction
- Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias
- Diabetes
- Stroke (stroke)
- Pneumonia
- Chronic Kidney Disease
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- Hypertension
- Prostate cancer
- Colorectal cancer